LaHug’s Captains 2017 – Round 8

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We’re lucky we get two chances at our SC captains with Round 8 being a prime example of why. My top 3 VCs scored 91, 80, and 30. My captains, however, scored 128, 83, and 147. Second chances are key. Each week, I’ll bring you a statistical analysis of the top options to give the highly important C and VC to!

If you can’t remember how the VC loophole works, see a quick summary in my Round 1 article here.

VC Options – Round 8

Another Sunday Fremantle game means most of us should be able to loophole any Friday or Saturday game. With the highly risky China game on Sunday, there’s too few safe options to be loopholing all the way up to Sunday night though so let’s draw the line at Saturday afternoon.

Yeo

Last 3: 125, 150, 59 (111 avg)

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 56, 45, 67 (56 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 150, 141, 102 (131 avg)

I feel like this is a really interesting pick and, frankly, a great one for VC where the risk is non-existent. Yeo has averaged 111 in his last three (including a 59) or 119 in his last four. He’s had a 150, a 141, and a 139 so far this year as scores you’d happily lock in. I’m happy to ignore those past three against the Dogs because, prior to this year, his best average was 82. This is something very different and you can afford to take the gamble. Prediction – 120

T. Mitchell

Last 3: 108, 117, 127 (117 avg)

Last 3 against Brisbane: 103, 109 (106 avg)

Last 3 at Launceston: 117 (117 avg)

Tom Mitchell is scoring super consistent tons right now but is that what you want in a VC? The ceiling’s just not there. Prediction – 115

Rockliff

Last 3: 148, 53, 104 (102 avg)

Last 3 against Hawthorn: 146, 95, 57 (99 avg)

Last 3 at Launceston: 146, 95, 57 (99 avg)

Rocky bounced back big-time last week and now looks to be a very interesting VC choice. Against the Hawks in Tassie last year, he managed a 146. Can he do it again? It’s high risk with a very low floor for Rocky this week but the ceiling makes him an ideal VC option. Fellow tackling machine, Jack Viney, managed 123 against the Hawks last week so the precedent is there. Prediction – 130

Murphy

Last 3: 118, 88, 69 (92 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 123, 124, 118 (122 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 12, 90 (75 avg)

After a couple of poor weeks, Murphy managed a ton again last week and now he plays the Saints who he has a good history against. Maybe not the ceiling of a Rockliff-type but a safe C option if you’re happy with a 120-odd. Prediction – 120

Docherty

Last 3: 103, 149, 93 (115 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 104, 141, 76 (107 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 108, 141, 79 (109 avg)

Doch scored 149 two weeks ago and scored 141 in the first of two outings against the Saints last year. He seems pretty safe for a score around 100 these days but the scores in the 140s are what we’d be hoping for if we gave him the VC this week. It’s possible but I’m not backing it. Prediction – 110

Pendlebury

Last 3: 91, 149, 67 (102 avg)

Last 3 against GWS: 100, 117, 148 (122 avg)

Last 3 at Showgrounds: 100, 148, 136 (128 avg)

Pendles was meant to go huge last week and give us a 140+. Instead, he only managed a 91. This week, he plays another team he’s got a good history against at a ground he’s been good at. With another chance at loopholing, there’s no risk. Prediction – 125

Captain Options – Round 8

If you have a good Sunday option, you can also loophole the remaining Saturday night guys. Otherwise, loophole someone above and trust the below (or anyone after him) if he flops.

Dangerfield

Last 3: 110, 65, 120 (98 avg)

Last 3 against Essendon: 99, 99, 157 (118 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 65, 90, 146 (100 avg)

First three rounds, Danger averaged 139. Since then, he’s averaged 96. That knee to the kidney may still be affecting him or it could be something else. Regardless, Danger is too risky to make your captain right now. Prediction – 110

Sloane

Last 3: 80, 140, 139 (120 avg)

Last 3 against Melbourne: 106, 140, 104 (117 avg)

Last 3 at AO: 140, 124, 168 (144 avg)

Sloane disappointed his owners for the first time since Round 1, averaging 143 in the five rounds between then and last week. The thing is, most Crows disappointed and, just like Rocky last week, I’d expect Sloane to bounce back quickly. Still huge at home this season and great against Melbourne. Prediction – 130

Neale

Last 3: 147, 124, 119 (130 avg)

Last 3 against Richmond: 148, 63, 94 (102 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 140, 100, 63 (101 avg)

I’ve been talking Neale up for the last few weeks and he’s definitely delivered. Against the Tigers, he’s due for another one. He scored 148 against them last year and has shown he can score at the MCG when his form is right. Prediction – 130

Fyfe

Last 3: 99, 62, 126 (96 avg)

Last 3 against Richmond: 128, 116, 128 (124 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 107, 128, 128 (121 avg)

You can’t back Fyfe in his current form but the numbers say this is the week he should definitely bounce back. If he doesn’t, we’re worried. Prediction – 120

Ablett

Last 3: 83, 210, 91 (128 avg)

Last 3 against Port: 100, 131, 111 (114 avg)

Last 3 at China: N/A

You’d be insane to back anyone in the China game but I think GAJ is my pick of the bunch. Firstly, his ceiling is crazy (210 just two weeks ago) but I think the fact that he’s still one of the game’s biggest names means he just has to step up in the first game in a country with 1 billion potential fans. His record against the Power is pretty good too. Prediction – 120

Hannebery

Last 3: 118, 103, 112 (111 avg)

Last 3 against North: 116, 126, 98 (113 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 71, 131, 121 (108 avg)

Hannebery is not all the way back but he’s close enough to there. He’s now hitting consecutive tons so he’s starting to feel a bit safer. He’s good against North. Prediction – 110

Huggy’s POD

Each week, I’ll bring you a POD option. Ideally, this guy will play early enough in the week to put the VC on, reducing the risk factor. I’ll pick a guy based on either nice numbers, interesting AFL whisperings, or pure gut feel. Feeling adventurous?

D. Martin

Last 3: 87, 93, 92 (91 avg)

Last 3 against Fremantle: 133, 97, 144 (125 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 92, 155, 118 (122 avg)

Not too long ago, Dusty was a legitimate option and not a risky POD. However, he’s averaging 91 in his last three with a high of 93 in that time. This week, I expect him to bounce back strong. He’s at the G where he’s done his best work this year and against a Dockers outfit he’s smashed before. A must-win game for his club so back Dusty if you think he’s got what it takes to step up. Gutsy prediction – 140

People’s Choice

You voted on Facebook and asked me to look a bit closer at Marcus “The Bont” Bontempelli this week so here goes!

Bontempelli

Last 3: 128, 141, 88 (119 avg)

Last 3 against West Coast: 70, 147, 92 (103 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 133, 70, 95 (99 avg)

You guys cursed Sloane last week with your People’s Choice so let’s hope you haven’t done the same to the Bont. Another game where he finished strong gave him a score of 128 last week and takes his average to 124 for the year. Interestingly, his highest number of disposals in a game this year is 30 but he gets his points from high efficiency, tackles, over a goal per game, and big plays in big moments. This week, he plays the Eagles and his record prior to last year’s final is impressive. My big concern this week is that Elimination Final where Mark Hutchings tagged and soundly beat him. I don’t see it happening again and, with the VC loophole, the risk is eliminated. Scores from mids against the Eagles the last few weeks: Ebert 112, Wingard 101, Neale 124, Fyfe 62, Mitchell 127, Shiels 109. All that together and you have good but not great to expect from the Bont this Friday. Prediction – 125

Top 3s

Top 3 VC Options

  1. Rockliff
  2. Pendlebury
  3. Bontempelli

Top 3 Captain Options

  1. Sloane
  2. Neale
  3. Martin

 

Will Huggett

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2 Comments

  1. Pendles also may piss off at half time, which you forgot to mention. Not this week, mind else where