LaHug’s Captains 2017 – Round 5

0

Apparently Danger’s not as reliable as we once thought but at least I was right with my POD in Neale. Each week, I’ll bring you a statistical analysis of the top options to give the highly important C and VC to!

If you can’t remember how the VC loophole works, see a quick summary in my Round 1 article here.

VC Options – Round 5

Strnadica gives us three games of options this week. Of course, if you’ve got someone not named in a later game, you can loophole options from my Captains choices.

Murphy

Last 3: 123, 158, 130 (137 avg)

Last 3 against Port: 92, 103, 27 (74 avg)

Last 3 at AO: 27 (27 avg)

Marc just keeps on dominating and I’m sure everyone without him (me included) is feeling mighty stupid. Against the Power, there’s nothing to say Murphy should be good outside of his current form. His current form, however, is too good to ignore. Prediction – 130

Bontempelli

Last 3: 115, 133, 140 (129 avg)

Last 3 against Brisbane: 91, 147, 93 (110 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 140, 102 (119 avg)

The Bont wasn’t as good as I’d hoped last week but if 115 is disappointing, you’re onto a good thing. Against the Lions, no Tigers managed big scores but Bontempelli has a 147 in his history that has me interested. His current form gets him a solid look as a VC option but beware a Robinson tag after it was very effective against Dusty last week. Prediction – 125

Dahlhaus

Last 3: 145, 124, 100 (123 avg)

Last 3 against Brisbane: 103, 97, 108 (103 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 145, 100, 74 (106 avg)

A 145 last week and, all of a sudden, Dahlhaus becomes a serious VC option for 2017. He started a bit slowly but has lifted the last two weeks and form says he should be good again. Not much going for him against the Lions though. Prediction – 120

Rockliff

Last 3: 176, 104, 118 (133 avg)

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 83, 152, 104 (113 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 133, 154 (130 avg)

Rocky went big as expected last week and proved the difference in many league games. Against the Bulldogs, he’s been up and down but he usually excels at Etihad. I don’t expect this week to be any different and he’s clearly the best VC option on ceiling alone. Prediction – 130

Sloane

Last 3: 124, 168, 146 (146 avg)

Last 3 against Gold Coast: 95, 87, 76 (86 avg)

Last 3 at Metricon: 95, 76, 76 (82 avg)

Three weeks in a row, Sloane has gone big. He usually sticks true to historical form and the last two weeks are prime examples of going big when expected. This week, he plays a Gold Coast team that are looking the goods. His history against the Suns, particularly at Metricon, says you shouldn’t pick him. He’s hard to ignore based on form but I’m going out on a limb and saying he has a quieter week this week. Prediction – 100

Captain Options – Round 5

Assuming you’re using our favourite Freo ruckman, you’re loopholing one of the above. If they don’t deliver, hopefully these safe captain options will have you covered.

Fyfe

Last 3: 107, 113, 117 (112 avg)

Last 3 against North: 141, 108, 128 (126 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 113, 108, 53 (91 avg)

Fyfe is ready to feast. He’s got a great record against North and should go well again this week. His form this year is a little down on what we’d hoped for so the ceiling might not be quite there but Fyfe will net you a certain ton. Prediction – 120

Neale

Last 3: 140, 84, 131 (118 avg)

Last 3 against North: 120, 112, 141 (124 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 84, 83, 119 (95 avg)

If you locked in Neale after I picked him as my POD last week, very well done. Against the Roos, he should be good again, with a great history and now with good form on his side. Prediction – 125

Dangerfield

Last 3: 90, 138, 140 (123 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 110, 116, 100 (109 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 138, 140, 99 (126 avg)

Mr. Reliable proves he’s not so reliable after all with a shocking 90. Seriously, Danger? Against the Saints, his scores haven’t been super impressive but they’re nothing to scoff at and, at Etihad where he’s killed it twice this year, you’d expect something good. Prediction – 130

Selwood

Last 3: 110, 121, 128 (120 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 106, 81, 100 (96 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 128, 88 (112 avg)

Selwood’s been good all year and, like Danger, has done very well at Etihad. Against the Saints, he leaves much to be desired, so there are certainly better options this week. Prediction – 115

Martin

Last 3: 54, 155, 118 (109 avg)

Last 3 against Melbourne: 79, 87, 118 (95 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 155, 118, 159 (144 avg)

Dusty was one of many disappointments last week but maybe he just sucks away from the MCG. He was well beaten by Robinson and we have to hope that other teams haven’t taken notice. Tags are rare in today’s game so expect a bit more against the Dees. His history doesn’t give me much confidence though. Prediction – 110

Pendlebury

Last 3: 94, 125, 120 (113 avg)

Last 3 against Essendon: 131, 85, 119 (112 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 120, 146, 112 (126 avg)

Not even Pendlebury could give us a ton last week in what was an awful round for many. Against the Bombers, he has a pretty good history and you’d expect him to step up for the ANZAC Day game. He’s great at the MCG and he might be worth picking if you want an option other than Danger this week. Prediction – 125

Huggy’s POD

Each week, I’ll bring you a POD option. Ideally, this guy will play early enough in the week to put the VC on, reducing the risk factor. I’ll pick a guy based on either nice numbers, interesting AFL whisperings, or pure gut feel. Feeling adventurous?

Heppell

Last 3: 67, 95, 108 (90 avg)

Last 3 against Collingwood: 101, 150, 107 (119 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 95, 152, 101 (116 avg)

Neale smashed it out of the park last week showing that Huggy’s POD might just be worth a look. My reasoning for Heppell this week is more about the story than the numbers. Don’t get me wrong, seeing a 150 against the Pies (his last ANZAC Day game) and a 152 at the MCG (Round 1 this year) show he could do well, but without the luxury of loopholing him, those other numbers (67, 95) come into play. The narrative is what makes me seriously consider Heppell. That 150 was an ANZAC Day game, a game full of emotion and a fixture which he’s tonned in every year except his first, where he scored a 97. That 152 against the Hawks was the first game back after the doping ban, a game full of emotion. When the game is most important, Heppell scores big. That’s why he’s my POD this week and that’s why you need to consider him. Gutsy prediction – 150 and a medal

People’s Choice

You voted on Facebook and asked me to look a bit closer at Brandon Matera this week so here goes!

Matera

Last 2: 159, 98 (129 avg)

Last 3 against Adelaide: 50, 84, 54 (63 avg)

Last 3 at Metricon: 98, 70, 81 (83 avg)

The numbers are not going to tell you what you want to hear. Matera has never been a stud in any form of fantasy yet, after a 159 last week and a respectable 98 the week before, we’re giving him a look. Firstly, I’m going to come right out and say nobody should be giving this guy the C but he does play before Strnadica (just) so you could take the gamble with the VC if you wanted to. Last week’s score was easily Matera’s highest with a 132 in 2014 and a 127 in 2011 the only other two to crack 115. He doesn’t ton often and, when he does, it’s usually not big. Is this year something different? 6 goals against the Hawks and 3 goals with 29 disposals against the Blues are both amazing games… but they’re against the Hawks and Blues. He’s playing the best team in the competition this week and I don’t think Matera can sustain his current form. Prediction – 75

Top 3s

Top 3 VC Options

  1. Rockliff
  2. Murphy
  3. Bontempelli

Top 3 Captain Options

  1. Dangerfield
  2. Neale
  3. Pendlebury

 

Will Huggett

Liked it? Take a second to support Doctor SuperCoach on Patreon!
Share.

Comments are closed.