LaHug’s Captains 2017 – Round 4

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What have we learned so far this year? Danger is super reliable and Marc Murphy is legit! Each week, I’ll bring you a statistical analysis of the top options to give the highly important C and VC to!

If you can’t remember how the VC loophole works, see a quick summary in my Round 1 article here.

VC Options – Round 4

If you’re using Strnadica this week, you’ve only got two games to choose from for VCs. As this is the most common loophole option (barring a popular rookie being dropped and noting that Hibberd plays even earlier), we’ll just look at those two games for VC options.

Hannebery

Last 3: 112, 71, 52 (78 avg)

Last 3 against West Coast: 114, 60, 145 (106 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 144, 60, 118 (107 avg)

If you held him after the first two weeks, he’s probably your best bet if you need a VC on Thursday night. Honestly though, there are no options from this game worth considering. Nobody from either team looks primed to score over 130 and you’d need at least that to consider taking it over Danger. Hannebery’s got the best ceiling with a 145 against the Eagles back in 2013 and a 144 against the Dockers last time he was in Perth. Prediction – 110

Goldstein

Last 3: 52, 105 (79 avg)

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 127, 52, 102 (94 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 105, 99, 127 (110 avg)

I mean, if you’ve got nobody else and you’re desperate, you could go for Goldy. However, Preuss has killed his scoring and I just can’t back him to bounce back if he’s playing forward so much. Prediction – 80

Bontempelli

Last 3: 133, 140, 120 (131 avg)

Last 3 against North: 133, 83, 153 (123 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 140, 102, 137 (126 avg)

This is your man. This is the VC option before Saturday’s Fremantle game. The Bont did absolutely nothing in the first quarter last week and still ended up on 133. He’s primed for a big one this week with a 131 average this year, 133 and 153 in two of his last three against North, and a great record at Etihad. Lock him in for the VC. Prediction – 135

Captain Options – Round 4

If you have any non-playing players later than Saturday afternoon, you can use one of these guys as your VC instead of the above. If you don’t, make sure you only pick a safe option because there’ll be no more chances!

Fyfe

Last 3: 113, 117, 108 (113 avg)

Last 3 against Melbourne: 128, 125, 78 (110 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 128, 128, 128 (128 avg)

Fyfe’s record against the Dees is pretty good but his start to the year is worrying. What impresses me is his little streak of 128s at the MCG. Without Gawn there, Sandilands should be winning most hitouts which can only help Fyfe’s score. Prediction – 128

Murphy

Last 3: 158, 130, 138 (142 avg)

Last 3 against Gold Coast: 64, 114, 117 (98 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 12, 90, 92 (65 avg)

Holy crap Murphy’s had an incredible start to the year. Kudos to everyone that picked him. Against the Suns, nothing really jumps out, and taking out his injury affected 12 at Etihad doesn’t make his recent form much better. That said, his form this year can’t be ignored and there’s no reason he won’t crack 130 again. Prediction – 130

Ablett

Last 3: 112, 73, 114 (100 avg)

Last 3 against Carlton: 135, 116, 124 (125 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 184, 141, 90 (138 avg)

We might have doubted GAJ a bit too early. He was decent last week but should be better this week. Ablett loves it under the roof at Etihad and has a killer record against the Blues. Might be almost time to jump on the Ablett train (and hopefully not too many jumped off before last week). Prediction – 120

Sloane

Last 3: 168, 146, 77 (130 avg)

Last 3 against Essendon: 141, 145, 84 (123 avg)

Last 3 at AO: 168, 77, 94 (113 avg)

There have been some high scoring premiums early this year and Sloane is another one of them. He smashed it at Adelaide Oval last week and gets to play there again. This time, it’s against a Bombers team he smashed for 141 and 145 in the last two years. Should be another big score this week! Prediction – 135

Pendlebury

Last 3: 125, 120, 146 (130 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 102, 107, 113 (107 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 165, 94, 115 (125 avg)

Pendles is averaging 130 this year against teams he’s not meant to score that well against. St Kilda is another one where his form doesn’t scream for you to give him a look. He’s doing so well this year that you probably have to anyway. Prediction – 120

Treloar

Last 3: 108, 108, 96 (104 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 101, 123, 157 (127 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 131, 148, 103 (127 avg)

Unfortunately, Treloar’s ball-winning and good historical form isn’t paying dividends for his SC owners in season 2017. The Saints are another team he should go well against but his season high of 108 gives me no confidence. Prediction – 110

Rockliff

Last 3: 104, 118, 137 (120 avg)

Last 3 against Richmond: 100, 141, 115 (119 avg)

Last 3 at Gabba: 118, 102, 159 (126 avg)

Rocky has a whole lot to say he’ll be good this week, and the ceiling to say there’s a chance he’ll be great. Four tons in a row against the Tigers and seven tons in his last eight at home, he’s safe enough to lock in if you want a high-ceiling POD from the standard Danger pick. Prediction – 125

D. Martin

Last 3: 155, 118, 159 (144 avg)

Last 3 against Brisbane: 129, 110, 102 (114 avg)

Last 3 at Gabba: 110, 80, 76 (89 avg)

Dusty goes bang and cracks a 155+ for the second time this year. He’s looking like a must have in your SC midfield and should be good again this week. He’s pretty good against the Lions and his form is impossible to ignore. Prediction – 130

Dangerfield

Last 3: 138, 140, 138 (139 avg)

Last 3 against Hawthorn: 121, 162, 106 (130 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 146, 121, 101 (123 avg)

The lock. Danger is the safest option but also has the potential to go 150+. His average is 139, his last three against the Hawks is 130, and he dropped a 146 last time he played at the G (in a Preliminary Final loss to the Swans). Lock. Him. In. Prediction – 135

Huggy’s POD

Each week, I’ll bring you a POD option. Ideally, this guy will play early enough in the week to put the VC on, reducing the risk factor. I’ll pick a guy based on either nice numbers, interesting AFL whisperings, or pure gut feel. Feeling adventurous?

Neale

Last 3: 84, 131, 83 (99 avg)

Last 3 against Melbourne: 123, 118, 145 (129 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 100, 63, 145 (103 avg)

Everyone’s always talking about Fyfe but what about the other Docker ball hog? If you’re one of the rare owners of Neale, things are looking good this week. A 129 average in his last three against the Dees includes a big 145. I’m liking him a bit extra this week in the off chance that no Gawn kills the Melbourne midfield and let’s Neale get one of those 40 possie games with many contested. Gutsy prediction – 145

People’s Choice

You voted on Facebook and asked me to look a bit closer at Reece Conca (seriously guys?) this week so here goes!

Conca

Last 3: 102, 71, 71 (81 avg)

Last 3 against Brisbane: 37, 71, 89 (66 avg)

Last 3 at Gabba: 89, 123, 82 (98 avg)

Conca impressed last week with a mammoth 102 and is primed to go big again this week. Two of Conca’s three best SC scores (ever) come against the Lions with a massive 118 in 2013 and an even bigger 123 in 2012 at this very ground. If he can regain the form of those years (70 average in 2012 and 81 in 2013), he’ll be unstoppable this week. Don’t be put off by that 37 from last year; Conca was affected by a knock to the jaw and was probably on track for a 130+ if it hadn’t happened. The weather forecast looks good so his owners can safely consider him for the C. Prediction – 80 (I need to get paid for this…)

Top 3s

Top 3 VC Options

  1. Bontempelli
  2. Sloane/Murphy*
  3. Fyfe**

*If you’ve got a non-playing player after Saturday night. **If you’ve got a non-playing player after Saturday afternoon.

Top 3 Captain Options

  1. Dangerfield
  2. Sloane
  3. Martin
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