LaHug’s Captains 2017 – Round 3

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Round 3 and price changes are around the corner… but that’s not why we’re here. Round 2 gave us more of Danger’s best and a huge bounce back by Sloane. Each week, I’ll bring you a statistical analysis of the top options to give the highly important C and VC to!

If you can’t remember how the VC loophole works, see a quick summary in my Round 1 article here.

VC Options – Round 3

Fremantle are playing Saturday night this week so, unless you’ve got a Riewoldt or a Cripps type player missing on Sunday, you’ll need your VC to play on Friday or earlier Saturday. Here’s what we’ve got.

J.P. Kennedy

Last 2: 89, 134 (112 avg)

Last 3 against Collingwood: 75, 136, 109 (107 avg)

Last 3 at SCG: 134, 136, 155 (142 avg)

Admittedly, none of the Swans “premiums” are looking that flash in season 2017. Kennedy is the pick of the bunch this week (yet again) due to an incredible record at the SCG. It’s worth noting that the last 6 times Kennedy scored under 100, he backed it up with a ton. Prediction – 115

Pendlebury

Last 2: 120, 146 (133 avg)

Last 3 against Sydney: 89, 118, 182 (130 avg)

Last 3 at SCG: 89, 118 (104 avg)

Dependlebury has given two good scores in a row and seems primed to give us another, despite what the numbers keep suggesting. He used to smash the Swans frequently before being forced to play them at the SCG. Since then, he’s been less impressive so we can probably look elsewhere this week. Prediction – 115

Martin

Last 2: 118, 159 (139 avg)

Last 3 against West Coast: 83, 148, 76 (102 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 118, 159, 82 (120 avg)

Dusty’s form gets him a look this week. He’s up and down against the Eagles but well worth a punt based purely on his start to the year. For what it’s worth, I’d look elsewhere based on Griffiths likely missing and Dusty spending more time forward. Prediction – 110

S. Mitchell

Last 2: 111, 118 (115 avg)

Last 3 against Richmond: 134, 110, 96 (113 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 86, 95, 91 (91 avg)

Sam Mitchell likes to play against the Tigers and was at his best in game 300 last year. His start to the year makes me think a ton is safe but the ceiling doesn’t seem quite there for a VC. Prediction – 115

Dangerfield

Last 2: 140, 138 (139 avg)

Last 3 against Melbourne: 155, 74, 120 (116 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 140, 99, 110 (116 avg)

Easily the pick of the bunch, Danger is basically averaging 140 to start the year. He’s been huge against the Demons in the past too. Just make sure you’re able to get online if you’re using him as VC because you’ll probably want to lock him in. Prediction – 140

Gawn

Last 2: 111, 128 (120 avg)

Last 3 against Geelong: 63, 146, 92 (100 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 128, 124, 92 (115 avg)

Gawn’s record against the Cats isn’t that great but no third man up means he’ll dominate. Until Geelong get a ruckman, premium rucks against them have to be worth a look. Did you see what Preuss did last week? Prediction – 130

Captain Options – Round 3

You’ll want a safer option from Saturday night onwards so here’s who I think will clock you something worthy of that all-important C.

R. Gray

Last 2: 161, 38 (100 avg)

Last 3 against Adelaide: 137, 129, 122 (129 avg)

Last 3 at AO: 161, 137, 106 (135 avg)

Ok, so Gray might not technically be “safe” after starting the year with a 38 but he seriously loves Showdowns. Huge at home, huge against the Crows. I’d back him in if I had him in my team. Prediction – 135

Fyfe

Last 2: 117, 108 (113 avg)

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 61, 146, 76 (94 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 108, 53, 115 (92 avg)

Sorry Fyfe owners (surely everyone, right?). I’m mentioning Fyfe here to tell you NOT to pick him this week. He’s not consistent against the Bulldogs and, to make matter worse, I think the Dogs will dominate this week as Freo bloods some youth. That can’t help his score. Prediction – 100

Bontempelli

Last 2: 140, 120 (130 avg)

Last 3 against Fremantle: 95, 110, 83 (96 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 70, 95, 92 (86 avg)

How good is the Bont? His history in Perth screams to steer clear and I probably won’t recommend him with better options available. But, seriously, the Bont is a weekly consideration until he shows he shouldn’t be. Prediction – 120

Rockliff

Last 2: 118, 137 (128 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 133, 103, 91 (109 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 154, 204 (164 avg)

Rocky has started the year well and is pretty decent against the Saints but it’s his Etihad record that has me excited. Admittedly, it doesn’t look that special if you go past those last three so don’t back him in on that alone. If he could be loopholed, I’d say go for it. Saints injury woes do make him that little bit extra tempting though… Prediction – 125

D. Beams

Last 2: 120, 91 (106 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 144, 126, 144 (138 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 105, 104, 111 (107 avg)

Beams is back and he loves to play the Saints! Without Armitage and Steven this week, he should rack up a whole lot of clearances. I’m slightly concerned that he scored 91 in Round 1 but I think he should go big this week. Prediction – 125

Z. Merrett

Last 2: 112, 126 (119 avg)

Last 3 against Carlton: 141, 87, 75 (101 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 126, 141, 138 (135 avg)

Merrett is a GUN and he’s playing against the Blues who are not that great right now. They gave up some big scores to Richmond and Melbourne so Merrett will definitely be good this week. Just a matter of how good. Prediction – 125

Ablett

Last 2: 73, 114 (94 avg)

Last 3 against Hawthorn: 159, 157, 138 (151 avg)

Last 3 at Metricon: 114, 74, 87 (92 avg)

If you could loophole him, you’d look at him. However, GAJ just hasn’t looked good enough this year to trust, despite his awesome record against the Hawks. Prediction – 115

Huggy’s POD

Each week, I’ll bring you a POD option. Ideally, this guy will play early enough in the week to put the VC on, reducing the risk factor. I’ll pick a guy based on either nice numbers, interesting AFL whisperings, or pure gut feel. Feeling adventurous?

Goldstein

Last 2: 105 (105 avg)

Last 3 against GWS: 99, 150, 143 (131 avg)

Last 3 at Hobart: 82, 172, 122 (125 avg)

Will he play?? If Goldy plays and he looks fit, give him the VC. He’s gone over 140 twice against the Giants and he’s gone over 160 twice at Hobart. All in the last three years. The ultimate VC this week because, if he flops, you’ve got stars waiting in the wings. Gutsy prediction – 140

People’s Choice

You voted on Facebook and asked me to look a bit closer at Tom Mitchell this week so here goes!

T. Mitchell

Last 2: 118, 116 (117 avg)

Last 3 against Gold Coast: 131, 139, 144 (138 avg)

Last 3 at Metricon: 131, 144 (138 avg)

A 116 and a 118 to start the year doesn’t scream captaincy… but then you look at who he’s playing. Against the Suns, Mitchell has 131, 139, 144 for a career average of 138. Two of those games have been over there and they’re just as good as the one in Sydney. The Suns gave up 137 to Rocky in Round 1 and 132 to Shiel last week. These are the two I think Mitchell will be most similar to but where he has the edge is that he’s already so good at tearing the Suns apart. An incredibly good option this week and the People’s Choice has hit the nail on the head again. Prediction – 135

Top 3s

Top 3 VC Options

  1. Dangerfield
  2. Gawn
  3. Goldstein

Top 3 Captain Options

  1. Gray
  2. Mitchell
  3. Rockliff/Beams
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