LaHug’s Captains 2017 – Round 1

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Hi everyone, I’m LaHug. Some of you may know me as your Dream Team/AFL Fantasy Captains Expert. Well, I’m hoping the skills transfer well to SuperCoach! Each week, I’ll bring you a statistical analysis of the top options to give the highly important C and VC to!

The VC Loophole

Thanks to rolling lockouts in SuperCoach, you always have two shots at a big score for your captain. Don’t know how it works? Read on.

  1. Have a player in your team that will not play that week. Start them on the field. Make sure you have an emergency in that position.
  2. Set your VC to someone playing early in the week (Friday night, Saturday afternoon), playing their game before the player that won’t play and before your other captain option.
  3. Set your C to someone playing after your VC (it’s always good to have your C on a legitimate option in case something goes wrong and you can’t get on to change it).
  4. If your VC scores well, switch the C to the player that isn’t playing. Your VC’s score will be doubled instead. If your VC doesn’t score well, you don’t have to change anything. Let your C bring you home.

Introducing Luke Strnadica! This guy is your best option for that player that won’t play each week. The Dockers play a whopping thirteen Sunday games. They also play six Saturday night games and no Friday games so you’ll always be able to loophole a few options. Start him in your rucks or forwards, take advantage of his DPP when needing flexibility, and use that loophole.

VC Options – Round 1

With Fremantle playing the last game of the weekend, we can look at Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to find the best VC option. Here are the best looking options for Round 1.

Docherty

2016 average: 109, Round 1 2016: 118

Last 3 against Richmond: 118, 147, 32 (99 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 102, 110, 104 (105 avg)

If you’re one of those people that wants to see their VC as early as possible, Docherty’s your best bet for Thursday’s season opener. He only had four scores 130+ last year so I wouldn’t get your hopes up too much. However, he scored 118 in this fixture last year and 147 in 2015’s opener. Might be worth a punt based on that. Prediction – 120

Treloar

2016 average: 111, Round 1 2016: 125

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 148, 103, 96 (116 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 146, 98, 122 (122 avg)

Why is Treloar here and not Pendlebury? Treloar’s recent form against the Dogs is simply better and his last three games of 2016 (148, 131, 146) showed us that he’s a legitimate captain option. Other than those three games, he only had one other score of 130+ so there are probably better options. Prediction – 120

Bontempelli

2016 average: 107, Round 1 2016: 110

Last 3 against Collingwood: 137, 78, 87 (101 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 140, 78, 145 (121 avg)

Inconsistency keeps The Bont’s averages down but his ceiling is HIGH. Last year was only his third season and I expect consistency to come sooner than later. Five scores of 140+ (including the Grand Final) give glimpses of what we might hope for more regularly this season. That 137 against the Pies in Round 21 is definitely worth chasing with a VC. Prediction – 130

J. P. Kennedy

2016 average: 113, Round 1 2016: 75

Last 3 against Port: 95, 143, 130 (123 avg)

Last 3 at SCG: 136, 155, 95 (129 avg)

JPK had an incredibly slow start to last season, not hitting 30 disposals for the first four weeks and only getting one ton in that time. His finish to the year though (particularly in the Grand Final) was much better. Looking back, there’s no trend for slow starts so there’s nothing to worry about. Looking at how much he smashed Port in 2015 makes him a tempting VC option at the SCG where he likes to go big. Prediction – 125

Hannebery

2016 average: 113, Round 1 2016: 100

Last 3 against Port: 136, 142, 81 (120 avg)

Last 3 at SCG: 111, 93, 136 (113 avg)

Hannebery is probably the better Swan this week. His dominance against Port is slightly more recent, scoring a big 136 last year compared to Kennedy’s 95. Dan’s more about consistency than really high scoring, with just the one game over 140 but still averaging 113. This makes him a good C option too if you choose your VC from earlier in the week. I don’t like to take too much from the preseason (particularly when something doesn’t work – like this hasn’t) but Hannebery has played more of an outside role, obviously hurting his scoring. I don’t think it will translate to the season but don’t say I didn’t warn you. Prediction – 130

Ablett

2016 average: 114, Round 1 2016: 139

Last 3 against Brisbane: 74, 109, 182 (122 avg)

Last 3 at Metricon: 74, 87, 121 (94 avg)

The gamble. Ablett’s injury history is getting very concerning now but his average of 114 is actually deflated thanks to his fall off in Round 15 and injury in Round 16. Without those games, it’s 120 and he’s someone you could happily set and forget. We all know how good his ceiling is but that 182 was way back in 2014. There’s also the risk of the Robinson tag. All that considered, you couldn’t give him the C. The VC, however, is definitely very, very tempting… Prediction – 120

Captain Options – Round 1

Slimmer pickings for the Captain choices this week. Of course, the Sydney boys or Ablett could be considered if your VC plays Thursday or Friday. Although there are fewer options here, the top 3 are very juicy!

Sam Mitchell

2016 average: 104, Round 1 2016: 130

Last 3 against North: 129, 110, 116 (118 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 97, 90 (99 avg)

Seems like a very risky pick here but I’m sure tempted to give Sam a look. In his new club, with a new midfield, you’d expect him to come out firing. He had 39 possessions in the most recent JLT game (although he didn’t help himself with four FAs and didn’t even manage a ton). I expect him to start with a bang like last year but there are better and less risky options. Prediction – 120

Fyfe

2016 average: 105, Round 1 2016: 61

Last 3 against Geelong: 162, 118, 104 (128 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 53, 115, 157 (108 avg)

Remember Round 1 last year when Freo decided they didn’t want to play footy for 2016? I expect Fyfe might not repeat that this year. His average last year was brought down by that filthy 61 and his injury affected 53, yet he still averaged over 100 from just 5 games. We all know how good Fyfe is and he absolutely smashed Geelong in their last meeting. Has to be very, very tempting even with the risk. Prediction – 130

Dangerfield

2016 average: 130, Round 1 2016: 162

Last 3 against Fremantle: 135, 188, 72 (132 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 135, 151, 72 (119 avg)

There are exactly two reasons why you wouldn’t give Dangerfield the C in Round 1. The first reason is that your VC kills it. The second is that he’s not in your team. That’s it. If you have Danger and don’t give him the C, you’re nuts. I haven’t predicted a single score over 130 in this article and Danger averaged 130 last year. He started hot and never slowed. His record against the Dockers is amazing and he’s done it over in Perth before. Lock! Prediction – 140

Selwood

2016 average: 111, Round 1 2016: 105

Last 3 against Fremantle: 123, 110, 128 (120 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 123, 79, 140 (114 avg)

His teammate is so good that Selwood’s numbers look pretty average here. Admittedly, they’re nothing amazing but he’s consistent against the Dockers and that makes for a good safety net. You want a certain ton from your captain and Selwood hasn’t dropped below 110 against the Dockers since Crowley last tagged him. Prediction – 125

Huggy’s POD

Each week, I’ll bring you a POD option. Ideally, this guy will play early enough in the week to put the VC on, reducing the risk factor. I’ll pick a guy based on either nice numbers, interesting AFL whisperings, or pure gut feel. Feeling adventurous?

Rance

2016 average: 98, Round 1 2016: 101

Last 3 against Carlton: 101, 154, 112 (122 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 80, 126, 120 (109 avg)

There are two things that make me consider Rance this week. The first is his 154 against the Blues in 2015. It was the classic Alex Rance game. He zoned off Henderson all game, taking 8 marks and racking up 22 disposals, including 14 kicks. When he plays a zoning game, he can score big. The second factor is Carlton being the perfect team for Rance’s fantasy game. Their midfield are good at clearances, led by young Cripps, but their forward line leaves much to be desired, meaning Rance can leave his opponent and take those intercept marks from Carlton’s clearance machines. Gutsy prediction – 140

Top 3s

Top 3 VC Options

  1. Hannebery
  2. Bontempelli
  3. Josh P. Kennedy

Top 3 Captain Options

  1. Dangerfield
  2. Fyfe
  3. Selwood

 

Will Huggett

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