Judge Jesse!

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Welcome to the round 4 Judge Jesse! A lot of us were burnt by big Maxy Gawn going down with a hamstring injury so this week we are taking a look at two possible replacements – Stefan Martin and Brodie Grundy!

 

Stefan Martin

Age: 30

Price: $516,800

Position Ruck

2016 average: 89.7

The big lion continues to remain relevant in Supercoach terms, and has gotten off to an absolute flyer in 2017, averaging 116.3 supercoach points over his first three games – this is only 3 points less than Gawn’s average this year (removing his round three game where he went down with a hammy). Martin had an off year in 2016 – averaging 89.7, hence his lower price tag this year. This was influenced by a few poor games where he really dropped his bundle. He scored under 70 six times and even dropped to 40 in round 10 against Hawthorn. On the flip side he also had some huge games, including a 162 in the round 18 win against the Bombers. He also registered over 50 hit outs on two occasions – in round seven against Port Adelaide and again in round 13 against the Eagles. Overall, in 2016 Martin averaged just over 26 hit outs per game. Which he has already increased to nearly 40 per game in 2017. Martin has already made nearly 30 thousand dollars, and with a relatively low breakeven of 50, I would expect him to gain about 25 thousand again this week.

 

 

Brodie Grundy

Age: 22

Price: $528,800

Position Ruck

2016 average: 95.7

Collingwood’s number one big man has enjoyed a strong start to the 2017 season, averaging a healthy 107.3 so far. While his scores don’t reflect it, Grundy has soundly beaten his opponents in the opening three rounds, recording an average of 39 hit outs per game. This doesn’t take into account his great all round game play, though. Grundy recorded an average of nearly 20 disposals and four tackles per game. Funnily enough, Grundy also averaged just over 26 hit outs per game in 2016 and has also increased his output in 2017 to nearly 40 per game. For a big man, Grundy absolutely loves laying a tackle, averaging over four tackles per game with three games of seven or more. Grundy also contributes on the scoreboard, kicking 11 goals last year and sending the ball inside 50 a number of times – 43 to be exact! Not bad for a 202cm ruckman! We all know ruckmen take a little longer to develop, but at 22 Grundy is just starting to hit the prime of his career.

 

 

The Judgement

Gawn going down was not what we needed this week, community! On the plus side it means we get to choose between one of these two guns! On the one hand, we’ve got the outstanding experience of Martin who seems to be taking his career to new heights this year. On the other hand, Grundy’s youth and hunger for the ball is equally tempting. Looking purely at the stats, the two players are so similar it’s hard to separate them. With hit outs to advantage being worth so many points, I began looking at the midfields each player was working with – as better midfielders tend to get themselves to the ball which works in the ruckman’s favour. This again proved to be frustratingly similar – while Grundy was knocking it down to Pendles, Treloar and Adams, Martin was feeding it to Zorko, Rockliff and Beams. In the end I decided that reliability is just too good to pass up in Supercoach. Martin can go huge, but those sub 70 games really worry me. Grundy on the other hand doesn’t go as crazy as Martin does, but fairly consistently scores around the 90 – 100 mark each week. I also feel as though Grundy’s body is a greater chance to hold out for the season than the aging Lion.

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