LaHug’s Captains 2017 – Round 2

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Back again for Round 2. What did Round 1 teach us? Danger is a safe bet, of course, and I should never doubt Pendles (even if the numbers say I should). Each week, I’ll bring you a statistical analysis of the top options to give the highly important C and VC to!

If you can’t remember how the VC loophole works, see a quick summary in my Round 1 article here.

VC Options – Round 2

Fremantle have the last game again so, if you’re using Strnadica, you can loophole anyone up to the Geelong vs. North Melbourne game. Even just looking to Saturday, there is a plethora of great options.

D. Martin

Last week: 159 (159 avg)

Last 3 against Collingwood: 123, 134, 111 (123 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 159, 82, 97 (113 avg)

Oh Dusty, what a start. If you had Dusty as your VC last week, you were laughing before the weekend had even started. He was huge last week but it was against a weak side in Carlton. Collingwood’s midfield is a lot stronger but they still gave up two scores over 120 and Martin is a different beast. His history against the Pies is good and there’s no reason he won’t go big again.

Prediction – 130

S. Pendlebury

Last week: 146 (146 avg)

Last 3 against Richmond: 82, 110, 106 (99 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 146, 112, 82 (113 avg)

As the readers pointed out, I didn’t include Pendlebury last week. The numbers didn’t look great but there he was, proving me wrong. Numbers look poor again this week but can I really count him out? As good an option as any.

Prediction – 115

M. Bontempelli

Last week: 120 (120 avg)

Last 3 against Sydney: 140, 128, 98 (122 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 137, 133 (124 avg)

Remember when Bont got that 140 against the Swans? You should – it was the Grand Final last year. He showed how big he can go in big games and the Grand Final Rematch should bring out his best. Worth a punt, I reckon.

Prediction – 125

J.P. Kennedy

Last week: 134 (134 avg)

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 134, 101, 101 (112 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 95, 112 (109 avg)

JPK was great in last year’s decider and his 134 shows it. He started the year well and should be good again this week.

Prediction – 120

L. Franklin

Last week: 125 (125 avg)

Last 3 against Bulldogs: 100, 119, 76 (98 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 141, 102, 66 (103 avg)

Here’s the thing about Buddy – he can go big but, as a KPP, he can also let you down. With the VC, however, there’s no risk. Better yet, there’s also no Dale Morris this year. There’s every chance Buddy gets his 20 disposals and adds 5 goals to it. I’m going out on a limb here with my guess.

Prediction – 135

G. Ablett

Last week: 114 (114 avg)

Last 3 against GWS: 99, 189, 145 (144 avg)

Last 3 at Showgrounds: 99 (99 avg)

Before last year’s disappointing 99, Gaz had a 189, a 145, a 164, and a 160 against the Giants. He’s probably not going to play the same dominant role again that he did in those games but the super high ceiling makes him super tempting. Unfortunately, I think more forward time and slower legs might make his score more mediocre.

Prediction – 115

J.J. Kennedy

Last week: 174 (174 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 140, 74, 105 (106 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 103, 141, 62 (102 avg)

Don’t go chasing last week’s points! Or do… it’s just your VC and could be worth the risk. JJK had a big 140 against the Saints last year as he kicked 5 goals and nobody could stop him. Any reason why he won’t kick 5 again this time?

Prediction – 125

T. Rockliff

Last week: 137 (137 avg)

Last 3 against Essendon: 154, 120, 133 (136 avg)

Last 3 at Gabba: 102, 159, 81 (114 avg)

Rocky loves playing the Bombers and should go big again here. Even with the Bombers dominating the midfield last week, Tom Mitchell managed a 116 and Rocky is just that touch above in ball winning ability. Plus, Rockliff has Martin feeding him the ball which should help his cause.

Prediction – 130

 

Captain Options – Round 2

Players from any Saturday game (or even Friday’s game) could be used as your Captain, as long as your VC played before them. I’ve drawn the line at Saturday night only because of the good but risky options (JJK anyone?) in those games. Here’s the rest that can’t be loopholed but are nice and safe.

T. Goldstein

Last week: 105 (105 avg)

Last 3 against Geelong: 83, 140, 154 (126 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 105, 99, 127 (110 avg)

Sandilands enjoyed 48 hitouts last week against a Geelong team that relied so heavily on third man up in previous years. The new rules mean Goldstein could easily crack the 50 mark this week and, if he’s effective as well, the sky’s the limit when it comes to his score. My only concern is that Preuss will continue to take away from Goldy’s scoring so there might be safer options.

Prediction – 120

M. Gawn

Last week: 128 (128 avg)

Last 3 against Carlton: 111, 69, 53 (78 avg)

Last 3 at MCG: 111, 168, 108 (129 avg)

I didn’t rate Gawn last week because, at the time of writing, I thought Spencer would be lining up next to him. He wasn’t, and Max dominated. The Beard’s numbers against the Blues leave much to be desired but Nankervis got 114 against them last week so… yeah.

Prediction – 125

N. Fyfe

Last week: 108 (108 avg)

Last 3 against Port: 112, 141, 122 (125 avg)

Last 3 at AO: 158, 141 (150 avg)

It might take a few more weeks for Fyfe to get back to his dominant self. He showed glimpses last week but couldn’t really sustain it for the whole game. I’m really, really tempted this week because his history against the Power screams he’s safe for a good score. I’m just not sure the ceiling’s quite there yet.

Prediction – 120

Huggy’s POD

Each week, I’ll bring you a POD option. Ideally, this guy will play early enough in the week to put the VC on, reducing the risk factor. I’ll pick a guy based on either nice numbers, interesting AFL whisperings, or pure gut feel. Feeling adventurous?

S. Mitchell

Last week: 118 (118 avg)

Last 3 against St Kilda: 141, 106, 9 (85 avg)

Last 3 at Subi: 77, 116, 85 (93 avg)

This literally comes down to two things for me. The first: Sam scored 141 last time he played the Saints and I can’t see why he wouldn’t do that again. The second: St Kilda weren’t great last week and the Mitchell/Priddis/Gaff midfield is better (in my opinion) that Melbourne’s, meaning it could be even more lopsided.

Gutsy prediction – 140

People’s Choice

You voted on Facebook and asked me to look a bit closer at Patrick Dangerfield this week so here goes!

P. Dangerfield

Last week: 138 (138 avg)

Last 3 against North: 229, 123, 101 (151 avg)

Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 110, 173 (127 avg)

Danger was always going to be looked at this week but let’s go a little further with the numbers. Firstly, he only had 24 disposals last week but still managed a good score of 138. He kicked 3 goals in a resting forward role that he’ll likely continue this week, added 9 tackles, and disposed at 75% efficiency. Against North last year, he had 48 touches, 2 goals, 13 marks, and amazingly only 3 tackles. I see the touches going down to that 30ish range and the marks should drop too but, in his new role and against a weak North outfit, I can see 3-4 goals being perfectly likely and a few more tackles to his name too. Lock him in to outdo last week.

Prediction – 140

Top 3s

Top 3 VC Options

  1. Franklin
  2. Martin
  3. Bontempelli/J.J. Kennedy

Top 3 Captain Options

  1. Dangerfield
  2. Rockliff
  3. Gawn

 

Will Huggett

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